Implied Odds
Implied odds count the extra chips you expect to win on later streets when you hit, making some calls profitable despite poor direct pot odds.
Implied odds extend pot odds by including the money you expect to win after you make your hand. Direct pot odds only look at the chips in the middle right now. Implied odds ask: if I hit, how much more can I realistically get my opponent to pay? When that future payoff is large enough, a call that looks too expensive today can still be profitable.
How to work out the amount you need
A simple break-even approach: figure out how many extra chips you would need to win on average when you hit, so that the call has zero expected value.
Break-even when: chance to hit × (current pot + future winnings) = chance to miss × cost of call
Worked example: a flush draw on the turn
You hold 8♠ 7♠ and the turn board is K♠ 6♠ 2♦ J♣. The pot is 100 and your opponent bets 50, so the pot is now 150 and you must call 50. You have 9 outs: any spade.
- Direct pot odds: you need 50 / 200 = 25%.
- Your chance to hit: 9 / 46 = 19.6%. Not enough on its own.
How much extra do you need to win on the river when the flush comes? Using the break-even formula:
9 × (150 + X) = 37 × 50 → 150 + X = 205.6 → X ≈ 56
So if you can expect to win, on average, about 56 more chips on the river when you hit, the call breaks even; more than that and it is profitable. If both players have deep stacks and your opponent tends to pay off, that is realistic. If your opponent has only 30 chips left behind, it is impossible, and the call is a mistake.
What makes implied odds good or bad
| Better implied odds | Worse implied odds |
|---|---|
| Deep stacks behind (see effective stack) | Short stacks with little left to win |
| Your hand is disguised, like a set from a small pocket pair | Obvious draws, such as a third flush card arriving |
| Opponent holds a strong hand they will not fold | Opponent is often bluffing and will give up when you hit |
| You will act last on later streets | You are out of position and may be bet off your draw |
Reverse implied odds
The opposite effect also exists. Reverse implied odds describe situations where, when you "hit," you sometimes still lose a big pot. Drawing to a low straight when a higher one is possible, or calling with a weak ace that can be outkicked, are classic examples. Here, the money you lose when you improve to a second-best hand cuts into your profits.
Common mistakes
- Assuming you will always get paid. Implied odds are an average, not the best case.
- Forgetting stack sizes. You can never win more than the effective stack.
- Using implied odds to justify every call. If direct odds are far off, the future payoff needed may be unrealistic.
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between pot odds and implied odds?
Pot odds use only the chips in the pot now. Implied odds also include the chips you expect to win on later streets if you complete your hand.
When are implied odds good?
Implied odds are best with deep stacks, a well-disguised draw, and an opponent with a strong hand likely to pay off a big bet.
What are reverse implied odds?
Reverse implied odds describe hands that can improve but still lose a large pot to a better hand, so improving can cost you money.
Related poker terms
- Pot Odds — Pot odds compare the cost of a call to the size of the pot you could win, telling you the minimum equity you need for a call to be profitable.
- Outs — Outs are the unseen cards that will improve your hand to the likely winner. Counting them is the first step in working out your odds on a draw.
- Expected Value (EV) — Expected value (EV) is the average amount a poker decision wins or loses if repeated many times. Good players choose the option with the highest EV.
- Effective Stack — The effective stack is the smallest stack among players in a hand: the most chips that can actually be won or lost between them.
- SPR (Stack-to-Pot Ratio) — SPR (stack-to-pot ratio) is the effective stack divided by the pot on the flop. It shows how committed you are and which hands can play for stacks.
- Set — A set is three of a kind made with a pocket pair plus one matching card on the board. It is stronger and better disguised than trips.