Expected Value (EV)
Expected value (EV) is the average amount a poker decision wins or loses if repeated many times. Good players choose the option with the highest EV.
Expected value, usually shortened to EV, is the average result of a decision if you could make it over and over in the same situation. A play with positive EV (+EV) earns chips in the long run, even if it loses this particular time. A play with negative EV (−EV) costs chips on average, even when it happens to work. Thinking in EV is what separates decisions from results.
The basic formula
For any decision, list the possible outcomes, multiply each by its probability, and add them up:
EV = (chance of winning × amount won) − (chance of losing × amount lost)
Folding always has an EV of zero from this point forward, because you neither win nor lose any more chips. So the question is simply whether calling, betting or raising has an EV above zero, and which option is highest.
Worked example: EV of a call
You hold Q♠ J♠ on a turn of A♠ 8♠ 3♦ 5♣. The pot is 100 and your opponent bets 50. You believe only a spade wins, giving you 9 outs out of 46 unseen cards.
- Chance to win: 9 / 46 = 19.6%. You would win the 150 already in the middle.
- Chance to lose: 37 / 46 = 80.4%. You would lose your 50 call.
EV = 0.196 × 150 − 0.804 × 50 ≈ 29.3 − 40.2 = about −10.9. On average, this call loses around 11 chips each time you make it, so folding (EV 0) is better if you cannot win more on the river.
Now change one thing: the bet is 25 instead of 50. EV = 0.196 × 125 − 0.804 × 25 ≈ 24.5 − 20.1 = about +4.3. The same draw becomes a profitable call because the price dropped. This is the same conclusion pot odds would give you, just expressed in chips.
Worked example: EV of a bluff
The pot is 100 on the river and you bet 50 with a hand that never wins if called. If your opponent folds a fraction f of the time:
EV = f × 100 − (1 − f) × 50
Setting this to zero gives a break-even fold rate of 50 / 150 = 33.3%. If you expect folds 40% of the time, EV = 40 − 30 = +10. That is why a bluff can be a winning play even though it fails more often than it succeeds.
Thinking in EV at the table
- Judge decisions, not results. A +EV call that loses was still right; a −EV call that wins was still a mistake.
- Compare options. Betting and checking can both be +EV; choose the one that earns more.
- Include future streets when you can. Simple formulas ignore later bets, which is where ideas like implied odds come in.
- Expect swings. Short-term results bounce around the EV because of variance. Over many hands, results drift toward it.
Frequently asked questions
What does +EV mean in poker?
+EV means a decision is expected to win chips on average over many repetitions. It can still lose in any single hand.
How do you calculate EV in poker?
Multiply each outcome by its probability and add them together, for example chance to win times pot won minus chance to lose times amount risked.
What is the EV of folding?
Folding has an EV of zero from that point on, since you neither win nor lose any further chips. Chips you already put in the pot are no longer yours.
Related poker terms
- Pot Odds — Pot odds compare the cost of a call to the size of the pot you could win, telling you the minimum equity you need for a call to be profitable.
- Equity — Equity is your share of the pot based on how often your hand would win if all remaining cards were dealt, expressed as a percentage.
- Variance — Variance is the short-term swing between your actual poker results and your expected results, caused by the luck of the cards.
- Implied Odds — Implied odds count the extra chips you expect to win on later streets when you hit, making some calls profitable despite poor direct pot odds.
- Fold Equity — Fold equity is the extra value you gain from the chance your opponent folds to your bet or raise, winning the pot without a showdown.
- Bluff — A bluff is a bet or raise with a weak hand that aims to make better hands fold. It wins when your opponent gives up the pot.